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Researchers from the Physics Department and the IGTP evaluate the evolution of the epidemic by COVID-19 and the effectiveness of control measures, using mathematical models

Researchers from the Computational Biology and Complex Systems group (BIOCOM-SC) of the UPC and the Center for Comparative Medicine and Bioimaging (CMCiB) of the Germans Trias i Pujol Research Institute (IGTP), with the impulse of “la Caixa”, Developed a mathematical model to monitor the epidemic of COVID-19. The report they make for the European Union strategy office based on the model is updated daily and includes predictions for Catalonia, Spain and the European Union. The model also serves to analyze the effectiveness of the measures established in the different countries.
Researchers from the Physics Department and the IGTP evaluate the evolution of the epidemic by COVID-19 and the effectiveness of control measures, using mathematical models
Predictions for European Union

The team of researchers -  Clara Prats, Sergio Alonso, Enric Alvarez i Daniel López Codina, del grup de recerca de Biologia Computacional i Sistemes Complexos (BIOCOM-SC) of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya · BarcelonaTech (UPC); Martí Catalán, from the Centre de Medicina Comparativa i Bioimatge de l'Institut de Recerca Germans Trias i Pujol (IGTP), and Pere Joan Cardona, from IGTP - have been analyzing, for weeks, the incidence data of COVID- 19 in several countries and have developed a mathematical model that allows quantifying the situation in various areas (for example, autonomous communities) and countries, as well as a prediction of the evolution for the next three days. The report they carry out and is updated daily is communicated to the European Commission Digital Excellence and Science Infrastructure general directory, led by  Thomas Skordas . Researchers from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, del Joint Research Centre, i de l’Imperial College London.are also included in this working group.

The mathematical model created has been in operation for the last two weeks making short-term projections with a 99% confidence interval for different European countries with a correctly calibrated hit giving, therefore, the correct prediction in almost all predictions. Soon, once its correct operation is assured, predictions will be incorporated within a week. The results of this model are incorporated every day in the progress report sent to the European working group.

The report aims to provide a complete picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in European countries and to forecast the situation for the next few days. Using an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in countries where the epidemic is about to end, including all the provinces of China, the model does not intend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases, but to evaluate the quality of the control measures carried out in each country and make a prediction of short-term trends.

More information on the website covid19 on the page of the research group BIOCOM-SC.

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