Skip to content

Dani López questions the alarm generated by the COVID-19 epidemic in the media with mathematical arguments.

In the case of the COVID-19 epidemic, mathematical models can help us look at reality with serenity, without alarmism. Professor Dani Lopez of the Department of Physics at UPC has adjusted a mathematical function, the logistics function, to the number of cases registered in China.
Dani López questions the alarm generated by the COVID-19 epidemic in the media with mathematical arguments.

Professor Dani Lopez of the BIOCOM-SC research group of the UPC Department of Physics has adjusted the logistics function to the current epidemic data. The result is reassuring, it seems that the Chinese really are containing the epidemic.

Since the transmission has been importing only to China, the evolution of the epidemic in this country is very important to assess the situation. We have taken the data from the page.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

At the figure, the red dots are the total cases diagnosed in China until the date indicated on the axis of abscissa, the dashed line is the mathematical adjustment.


Obviously the mathematical adjustment will have to be reviewed everyday, and, on the other hand, it is possible that in some other country an outbreak that cannot be initially contained is initiated, but the alarmism that surrounds this issue really seems unlikely.


These arguments have been disclosed in the newspaper La Vanguardia:

https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20200212/473493336489/un-algoritmo-calculado-en-la-upc-preve-que-la-epidemia-por-covid-19-decrecera.html

The BIOCOM-SC research group studies tuberculosis from different perspectives. In such case there are around one and a half million of deceases annually. It is difficult to understand the silence about epidemics such as tuberculosis and the current alarmism about COVID-19.

Filed under: